Caribbean Low Season 2026: RevPAR Gap and South American Demand — LSG Research Note 03

LSG Research Note 03 · 24 September 2026

Low season is not only a European hotel problem. The 2026 Caribbean Travel Trends Report from Amadeus and the Caribbean Hotel and Tourism Association (CHTA) shows a clear performance gap between peak and low periods — but also evidence that source-market diversification can help extend demand beyond traditional peaks.

Key findings

• Caribbean hotel RevPAR was reported at US$183 in high season and US$125 in low season.
• End-of-year holiday RevPAR reached US$283.
• Latin American demand to the Caribbean grew 24% year over year.
• Premium travel from South America grew 117%.
• Brazil recorded 60% growth in low-season arrivals.
• Colombia recorded 26% growth in low-season arrivals.

The RevPAR gap

Using the published figures, Low Season Growth calculated two simple descriptive gaps:

• High season vs low season: US$183 − US$125 = US$58. The low-season level is about 31.7% below the reported high-season RevPAR.
• Year-end holiday vs low season: US$283 − US$125 = US$158. The low-season level is about 55.8% below the reported holiday RevPAR.

These percentages are Low Season Growth calculations from the CHTA / Amadeus figures. They are not official Amadeus or CHTA indicators.

Source-market diversification matters

The more interesting commercial signal is not simply that low season performs below peak. The report also shows that Latin American source markets are contributing to demand outside traditional peak periods.

Brazil was the fastest-growing South American low-season source market in the published figures, with arrivals up 60%, while Colombia grew 26%. At the broader regional level, Latin American demand grew 24% year over year even as total overseas demand to the Caribbean grew only 1%.

For hotel and destination teams, that suggests a practical distinction: a weak period may require more than discounting. It may require a different source market, different booking window, different message or different route to market.

What this means for hotels

1. Measure the exact weak period. Regional seasonality does not mean every hotel experiences the same dates or the same gap.

2. Look at source-market fit. Demand from markets with different holiday calendars, weather cycles or flight access can help change the shape of a weak period.

3. Start before the low season. Source-market development, partnerships, group demand and B2B sales often require longer lead times than last-minute consumer promotions.

4. Separate rate from demand creation. Lower RevPAR can reflect weaker demand, but the commercial response does not automatically need to be a lower rate.

5. Use events and cultural programming strategically. The report also highlights CARIFESTA XV in Barbados: arrivals rose 23% during the festival period, illustrating how event-driven demand can help shift travel timing.

Sources and methodology

The underlying report is Caribbean Travel Trends 2026, presented by Amadeus and CHTA.

The CHTA / Amadeus release states that the analysis draws on Amadeus Travel Intelligence data covering April 2025 through March 2026. The release was also published by the Government of Antigua and Barbuda.

See the full Low Season Growth Research Methodology.

Limitations

• Regional figures do not represent every Caribbean destination or individual hotel equally.
• RevPAR values for broad periods do not reveal the distribution across individual properties.
• Source-market growth does not establish causality or profitability.
• The source period spans April 2025 to March 2026 and should not be treated as a full-year 2026 forecast.

Persistent DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.22938535

Open data

Download Research Note 03 data (CSV) · View methodology note on GitHub

How to cite this research

Low Season Growth, “Caribbean Low Season 2026: RevPAR Gap and South American Demand — LSG Research Note 03,” September 2026.