Low Season Growth Analysis — 30 September 2026
Booking confirmation is no longer the end of the hotel customer journey. New McKinsey and Skift Research data, highlighted again today by PhocusWire, suggests that travelers continue to compare, research and reconsider even after they have already booked.
The signal
McKinsey's 2026 research, based on a survey of more than 1,000 U.S. travelers and a diary study covering 211 real planning and booking sessions, found that the travel journey now involves roughly 65 touchpoints, compared with about 45 in 2018. Seventy-eight percent of respondents said they keep planning and researching after booking, while 49% said they had changed a booked accommodation after finding a more attractive option.
This should not be read as a global forecast for every hotel. The survey population is U.S.-based and behavior will vary by market, trip purpose, cancellation terms and booking lead time. But for independent hotels, especially those selling flexible rates months in advance, the commercial implication is clear: a confirmed reservation can still be at risk.
What independent hotels should do differently
1. Re-sell the decision immediately after booking
A confirmation email should do more than repeat dates and a reservation number. Reinforce why the guest made a good choice: highlight two or three specific strengths of the property, clarify what is included, make arrival information easy to find and give the guest a direct human contact point.
2. Segment post-booking risk
Not every reservation needs the same communication. A flexible booking made three months in advance is different from a non-refundable stay booked next week. Useful segmentation signals include booking source, lead time, cancellation policy, room type, party composition and whether the guest has stayed before.
3. Send useful trip-planning content before competitors do
Seven to fourteen days after booking, send something that reduces uncertainty: a short neighborhood guide, transfer options, a realistic local itinerary, dining recommendations or an experience bundle relevant to that stay. The purpose is not to send more marketing. It is to help the guest complete the trip around the hotel they already chose.
4. Use the cancellation window as a confidence window
Before a flexible cancellation deadline, reinforce value rather than automatically discounting. Remind the guest of practical advantages, included benefits, location, local recommendations and the easiest way to contact the hotel. A late discount can unintentionally teach guests to keep shopping for a cheaper option.
5. Turn the stay into future low-season CRM data
After checkout, capture permission and useful preference data instead of keeping only a generic email address. A guest who traveled for food, wellness, a couple's weekend or a family break can later receive a relevant weak-date offer built around that same motivation. This is more useful than sending the same low-season promotion to the entire database.
A simple post-booking sequence
- Immediately: confirmation + reassurance + direct contact.
- 7–14 days later: useful destination or stay-planning content.
- Before the cancellation deadline: confidence-building reminder, not a generic discount.
- Pre-arrival: practical information and relevant add-ons.
- Post-stay: feedback, permission and preference capture for future direct campaigns.
What to measure
Hotels can test whether this approach creates value by tracking cancellation rate by booking source and lead time, direct repeat-booking rate, OTA-to-direct repeat conversion, ancillary revenue, response rate to pre-arrival messages and the percentage of guests added to a permission-based CRM with usable preferences.
Why this matters for weak dates
Low-season demand is often treated as an acquisition problem only: find more people, run more ads, discount more rooms. But an independent hotel can also create value by protecting demand it has already won and building a better first-party audience for future weak periods. Post-booking communication sits between those two goals.
For hotels reviewing their distribution mix, see Direct Booking Strategy for Independent Hotels and B&Bs and Before You Discount a Slow Week: Five Direct-Booking Checks for Independent Hotels.
Sources and methodology
McKinsey & Company, “Winning hearts in an age of infinite travel choices,” 22 September 2026.
Editorial note: factual findings above are attributed to their original sources. Practical recommendations and low-season implications are Low Season Growth analysis. Survey findings should be tested against each hotel's own guests, booking conditions and market.
LSG Hospitality News Desk · Editorial standards and corrections