{ "name": "LSG Global Low-Season Evidence Map 2026", "publisher": "Low Season Growth", "updated": "2026-10-13", "canonicalUrl": "https://lowseasongrowth.com/pages/global-low-season-evidence-map-2026", "comparabilityNote": "Regions use different source institutions, periods and metrics. This resource is an evidence index, not a cross-region ranking.", "regions": [ { "region": "Europe", "evidence": [ { "researchNote": "lsg-research-note-01", "topic": "tourism seasonality concentration", "source": "Eurostat", "sourcePeriod": "2025", "headlineEvidence": [ { "market": "Croatia", "metric": "LSG Peak-to-Trough Concentration Gap", "value": 53.1, "unit": "percentage points", "classification": "LSG descriptive calculation" }, { "market": "France", "metric": "LSG Peak-to-Trough Concentration Gap", "value": 27.7, "unit": "percentage points", "classification": "LSG descriptive calculation" }, { "market": "Italy", "metric": "LSG Peak-to-Trough Concentration Gap", "value": 26.8, "unit": "percentage points", "classification": "LSG descriptive calculation" }, { "market": "Lithuania", "metric": "LSG Peak-to-Trough Concentration Gap", "value": 11.3, "unit": "percentage points", "classification": "LSG descriptive calculation" } ], "article": "https://lowseasongrowth.com/blogs/news/european-tourism-seasonality-2026-lsg-research-note", "data": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/vincenzoproto/Lowseasongrowth/main/research/data/research-note-01-seasonality-gap.csv", "doi": "https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22937580" }, { "researchNote": "lsg-research-note-02", "topic": "international vs domestic tourism demand", "source": "Eurostat", "sourcePeriod": "H1 2026 and Q1 2026", "headlineEvidence": [ { "metric": "Foreign guest-night growth", "value": 2.5, "unit": "percent YoY", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "metric": "Domestic guest-night growth", "value": 0.9, "unit": "percent YoY", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "metric": "Foreign share of EU accommodation nights", "value": 48.9, "unit": "percent", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "metric": "LSG international-to-domestic growth ratio", "value": 2.78, "unit": "ratio", "classification": "LSG descriptive calculation" } ], "article": "https://lowseasongrowth.com/blogs/news/international-tourism-demand-europe-2026-lsg-research-note", "data": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/vincenzoproto/Lowseasongrowth/main/research/data/research-note-02-international-demand.csv" }, { "researchNote": "lsg-research-note-02", "topic": "regional exposure to domestic and international accommodation demand", "source": "Eurostat — Regions in Europe, 2026 edition, Tourism", "sourcePeriod": "2024 (calendar year)", "sourcePublicationDate": "2026-09-23", "added": "2026-09-29", "geographicLevel": "NUTS 2", "coverage": "244 EU regions covered by the source comparison", "sourceUrl": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/interactive-publications/regions-2026#tourism", "publicationRecord": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-interactive-publications/w/ks-01-26-040", "headlineEvidence": [ { "metric": "Regions where foreign accommodation nights exceeded domestic nights", "value": 65, "unit": "regions", "denominator": 244, "classification": "official source figure" }, { "metric": "Share of covered regions where foreign accommodation nights exceeded domestic nights", "value": 26.6, "unit": "percent of regions", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "market": "Kriti (Crete)", "metric": "Foreign share of accommodation nights", "value": 94.4, "unit": "percent", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "market": "Jadranska Hrvatska", "metric": "Foreign share of accommodation nights", "value": 92, "unit": "percent", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "market": "Illes Balears", "metric": "Foreign share of accommodation nights", "value": 90.2, "unit": "percent", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "market": "Mecklenburg-Vorpommern", "metric": "Domestic share of accommodation nights", "value": 96.7, "unit": "percent", "classification": "official source figure" } ], "interpretation": "LSG recommends comparing destination demand mix with property-level source markets in the months being targeted before choosing an offer or channel.", "limitations": "Annual 2024 regional shares are not regional 2026 growth rates, booking-window measurements or evidence of demand for a specific low-season period or property. Do not compare them with H1/Q1 2026 indicators as a time trend. Practical recommendations are LSG interpretation.", "article": "https://lowseasongrowth.com/blogs/news/international-tourism-demand-europe-2026-lsg-research-note#regional-demand-2024", "archiveNote": "Separate live-page and working-repository supplement. The original Research Note 02 2026 CSV, DOI deposit and frozen snapshots are unchanged." }, { "researchNote": "lsg-research-note-02", "contentType": "research-note-supplement", "contentId": "eu-resident-travel-2025", "topic": "EU residents travel patterns and tourism expenditure", "source": "Eurostat — More than 90% of EU residents’ trips are inside the EU", "sourcePeriod": "2025 (calendar year)", "sourcePublicationDate": "2026-10-09", "added": "2026-10-13", "sourceUrl": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20261009-1", "sourceDatasets": [ "tour_dem_tttot", "tour_dem_extot" ], "headlineEvidence": [ { "metric": "Trips by EU residents", "value": 1.2, "unit": "billion trips", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "metric": "Year-on-year trip growth", "value": 1.4, "unit": "percent", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "metric": "Additional trips vs 2024", "value": 17, "unit": "million trips", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "metric": "Domestic trips", "value": 848, "unit": "million trips", "share": 70, "classification": "official source figure" }, { "metric": "Foreign trips within the EU", "value": 264, "unit": "million trips", "share": 22, "classification": "official source figure" }, { "metric": "Trips staying within the EU", "value": 92, "unit": "percent", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "metric": "Domestic trip expenditure", "value": 266.2, "unit": "EUR billion", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "metric": "Foreign trip expenditure", "value": 379.4, "unit": "EUR billion", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "metric": "Domestic accommodation expenditure", "value": 90.3, "unit": "EUR billion", "share": 34, "classification": "official source figure" }, { "metric": "Foreign accommodation expenditure", "value": 131.3, "unit": "EUR billion", "share": 35, "classification": "official source figure" } ], "interpretation": "Cross-border travel is a smaller share of trips than domestic travel but represents a larger pool of total tourism expenditure. LSG uses this as source-market context for weak-date planning, not as proof of hotel-level demand.", "limitations": "Trip counts, tourism expenditure and accommodation nights are different indicators. These figures are not hotel-only occupancy data. Foreign-trip expenditure includes trips outside the EU, while the 264 million figure refers specifically to foreign trips within the EU.", "article": "https://lowseasongrowth.com/blogs/news/international-tourism-demand-europe-2026-lsg-research-note#eu-resident-travel-2025", "archiveNote": "Live-page and working-repository supplement. Original Research Note 02 2026 CSV, DOI deposit and frozen snapshots remain unchanged." }, { "contentType": "lsg-data-led-insight", "contentId": "european-short-stay-platform-demand-q2-2026", "topic": "platform-booked short-stay accommodation demand", "source": "Eurostat — Short-stay accommodation offered via online platforms", "sourcePeriod": "Q2 2026 national; Q1 2026 NUTS 2 regional", "sourcePublicationDate": "2026-10-02", "added": "2026-10-06", "sourceUrl": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20261002-1", "detailsUrl": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Short-stay_accommodation_offered_via_online_platforms_-_monthly_data", "headlineEvidence": [ { "metric": "EU platform-booked short-stay guest nights", "value": 258.8, "unit": "million guest nights", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "metric": "Q2 2026 year-on-year growth", "value": 5.3, "unit": "percent", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "metric": "Additional nights vs Q2 2025", "value": 13.1, "unit": "million guest nights", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "metric": "Growth vs Q2 2024", "value": 23.9, "unit": "percent", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "metric": "Q1 2026 year-on-year growth", "value": 9.7, "unit": "percent", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "metric": "LSG change in YoY growth rate from Q1 to Q2", "value": -4.4, "unit": "percentage points", "classification": "LSG descriptive calculation" }, { "market": "Italy", "metric": "Q2 2026 guest-night growth", "value": 8.1, "unit": "percent YoY", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "market": "Spain", "metric": "Q2 2026 guest-night growth", "value": 1.9, "unit": "percent YoY", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "market": "Canarias", "metric": "Q1 2026 platform-booked guest nights", "value": 8.8, "unit": "million guest nights", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "market": "Rhône-Alpes", "metric": "Q1 2026 platform-booked guest nights", "value": 8.8, "unit": "million guest nights", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "market": "Andalucía", "metric": "Q1 2026 platform-booked guest nights", "value": 8.3, "unit": "million guest nights", "classification": "official source figure" } ], "interpretation": "Platform-booked short-stay demand is still growing, but growth has slowed and destination performance remains uneven. LSG treats this as a destination and channel signal, not proof of hotel-level demand.", "limitations": "This Eurostat series covers holiday rentals and other short-stay accommodation offered through Airbnb, Booking and Expedia, excluding hotels and campsites. Due to possible overlaps, it cannot be added to general tourist-accommodation statistics.", "article": "https://lowseasongrowth.com/blogs/news/european-short-stay-platform-demand-q2-2026" } ] }, { "region": "Caribbean", "evidence": [ { "researchNote": "lsg-research-note-03", "topic": "low-season RevPAR and source-market diversification", "source": "Caribbean Hotel and Tourism Association (CHTA) and Amadeus", "sourcePeriod": "Apr 2025-Mar 2026", "headlineEvidence": [ { "metric": "High-season hotel RevPAR", "value": 183, "unit": "USD", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "metric": "Low-season hotel RevPAR", "value": 125, "unit": "USD", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "metric": "LSG low-season gap vs high season", "value": 31.7, "unit": "percent below high-season level", "classification": "LSG descriptive calculation" }, { "metric": "Brazil low-season arrivals growth", "value": 60, "unit": "percent", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "metric": "Colombia low-season arrivals growth", "value": 26, "unit": "percent", "classification": "official source figure" } ], "article": "https://lowseasongrowth.com/blogs/news/caribbean-low-season-2026-revpar-south-american-demand", "data": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/vincenzoproto/Lowseasongrowth/main/research/data/research-note-03-caribbean-low-season.csv" } ] }, { "region": "Japan", "evidence": [ { "researchNote": "lsg-research-note-04", "topic": "aggregate inbound cooling and source-market divergence", "source": "Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) and Japan Tourism Agency", "sourcePeriod": "Jun-Aug 2026", "headlineEvidence": [ { "metric": "August visitor arrivals", "value": 3098900, "unit": "visitors", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "metric": "August visitor arrivals YoY", "value": -9.6, "unit": "percent", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "metric": "Source markets with record August arrivals", "value": 14, "unit": "markets", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "metric": "July room occupancy", "value": 60.8, "unit": "percent", "classification": "official source figure" }, { "metric": "June room occupancy", "value": 57.2, "unit": "percent", "classification": "official source figure" } ], "article": "https://lowseasongrowth.com/blogs/news/japan-tourism-2026-source-market-divergence-lsg-research-note-04", "data": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/vincenzoproto/Lowseasongrowth/main/research/data/research-note-04-japan-demand.csv" } ] } ], "methodology": "https://lowseasongrowth.com/pages/research-methodology", "citationGuidance": "https://lowseasongrowth.com/pages/cite-low-season-growth", "schemaVersion": "1.1", "machineReadableEndpoint": "https://lowseasongrowth.com/evidence-map.json" }